Israel Attacks Iran Natanz Nuclear Facility
As talks are underway in Vienna to revive the 2015 Nuclear deal, Israel attacks a familiar target.
On April 10th, 2021, Iran celebrated its National Nuclear Technology Day by installing new centrifuges at its Natanz nuclear enrichment facility in northern Iran. The new cascade of 164 centrifuges of the IR-6 model, one of Iran's newer generation centrifuges, was announced by President Rouhani.
The following day an accident was reported at the facility by Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, citing an electrical disruption, with no apparent casualties or pollution.
Indications that this was not an accident but rather the result of sabotage first emerged as israeli media sources began reporting that israel’s spy service the Mossad was behind the incident.
Israeli public radio Kan reported a Mossad operation, citing anonymous intelligence sources. Widely speculated to be a cyber-attack, as also reported by Israel’s Channel 13 news, The New York times, however, said Israel had blown up the plant's power source, according to two anonymous US officials. This was corroborated by Iran's Atomic Energy Organization also saying that a small explosion had caused the power blackout.
The attack also came in the wake of veiled comments from Netanyahu the day of the attack: “The struggle against Iran and its proxies and the Iranian armament efforts is a huge mission.” […] “The situation that exists today will not necessarily be the situation that will exist tomorrow.”
Media reports that Israel was behind the attack apparently angered defense minister Benny Gantz prompting him to call for an investigation into security leaks.
Amusingly, countless headlines in the mainstream media state that “Iran blames Israel for attack”– when just underneath, in the same articles, they quote Israeli media placing the Mossad behind the attack. These headlines make it seem as though Iran is unfairly blaming Israel just for the sake of blaming Israel. Nevertheless, given the recent history of israeli attacks and just using a little common sense, who else possesses not just the motive but the means to get carry out these operations save for Israel and the United States?
Previous attacks
Israel has targeted Natanz in the past many times using various attack vectors. In 2010 a computer virus, known commonly as STUXNET, was developed under a covert joint US-israeli project. The virus, part of Operation Olympic Games, was developed in two iterations. The first version was designed to overpressure the centrifuge rotors, stressing them over time and causing them to break. The second iteration was designed to affect the Centrifuge Drive System (CDS), which controls rotor speeds, manipulating the centrifuges to spin above limit and then abruptly hit the brakes.
In July, 2020 a mysterious explosion was reported at Natanz, later inadvertently admitted to have been an israeli operation. In an interview with Army Radio, former israeli defense minister Lieberman, expressed his annoyance at Cohen, the head of the Mossad, for divulging details about that very attack to the New York Times.
Between 2010 and 2012 Israel also assassinated four Iranian nuclear scientists. The latest murder came in November 2020 when Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was ambushed and killed outside Tehran.
Given previous US-israeli cooperation, it's not farfetched at all to suspect the US was also involved in some capacity with this latest attack, hence why it sounds hard to believe White House Spokesperson Jen Psaki who denies any US involvement and even knowledge.
RESPONSE
Following Sunday's attack IRIB news later released a photograph of the alleged suspect, 43-year-old Reza Karimi. Iran has reportedly requested a red-notice from INTERPOL for his arrest.
Iran's Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif wrote a letter to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres describing the attack as “nuclear terrorism”.
No official damage report of the facility has been released thus far. It's assumed that taking out the power supply and backup generators would have immediately caused some of the centrifuges to crash, as they would not have been powered down slowly nor evacuated any of the UF6 gas in the cascades, permanently breaking them in one fell swoop.
Despite claims by Israel that the damage would take the facility out for 9 months, but the damaged centrifuges appear to be the older IR-1 model. Iran vowed to increase its uranium enrichment to 60% – something it achieved a few days later on April 16th, confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in a confidential report according to Reuters. Iran also said it would also be adding a further 1,000 centrifuges and replacing the damaged IR-1s with the newer, more advanced models. As veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier suggest this perhaps leaves Iran with a stronger hand to play.
As a pressure tactic in the past Iran has increased its number of centrifuges and its level of enriched uranium to 20% following the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh's assassination as well as the United States’ departure from the deal and reimposition of sanctions.
VIENNA
The incident at Natanz comes just as talks are underway in Vienna in hopes of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran has insisted it wants all sanctions lifted and for the United States to re-enter the deal abandoned by Trump in May 2018. The Biden administration has yet to deliver on a campaign promise to re-enter the agreement, instead demanding that Iran return first to the original limits of the JCPOA.
Present in Vienna were delegates and representatives of Iran, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the EU. Since Iran and the United States are not engaged in direct talks, two working groups were established, one for lifting US sanctions, the other for Iran's return to the original JCPOA limits.
Despite the attack, talks resumed normal on April 15th, with the rest of the legwork being picked up by expert groups with the Joint Commission reconvening every so often. I reported outside the Grand Hotel in Vienna where the Joint Commission took place:
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that some progress had been made, despite a lack of condemnation about israel's attack from European parties.
Russia's Permanent Representative to Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said that talks appear to be going well, stating that a third working group has now been formed aimed at laying out the steps required to restore the deal.
Diplomatic efforts still have a ways to go. One does get a sense that under Biden, Israel and the United States have adopted a good cop/bad cop strategy with Iran where the Americans pretend to engage in diplomacy, taking their time and stalling to get back in the deal meanwhile Israel goes and blows up nuclear facilities behind the scenes. Both these actions serve to apply pressure on Iran which is subject to some 1,500 sanctions, in part due to longstanding US foreign policy as well as Trump's Maximum Pressure Campaign. Iran would like to see them lifted, particularly as its oil, banking and energy sectors have all been specifically targeted causing widespread economic harm which Mike Pompeo still brags about. The issue is extremely important especially with presidential elections right around the corner in Iran.
Some Iranians are understandably frustrated at the lack of progress. They feel that Iran has been too patient and conceded too much to the United States and Europe as Iran always complied with the nuclear deal. That's not an opinion, it's a fact; scientifically quantifiable and verified by the IAEA. Despite this, the United States pulled out and reimposed sanctions with the Biden administration refusing to swiftly undo Trump's actions. Once the US left Iran was no longer bound by the limits under the JCPOA which it has only surpassed sequentially in response to sanctions and aggression. That's not Iran violating the deal, it's the dispute resolution mechanism specifically outlined in the agreement. Of course the media never reports it as such and portrays Iran as having violated the agreement instead of the US.
Despite the lack of any evidence of a nuclear weapons program, Israel has used the existence of Iran's civilian nuclear program as a pretext to attack Iran. Given the timing of the attack on Natanz, many speculate that israel's goal was perhaps to sabotage the talks; to make Iran walk away, isolating them and portraying them as unwilling to engage in diplomacy. Israel has publicly expressed opposition to the deal many times and would like to see Iran's ballistic missile program as well as it's regional support included: a further indication this is less about nuclear weapons and more about controlling Iran and cutting off its support for liberation and resistance movements in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.
The double standard here in how the West treats Iran and Israel in regards to the exact same issue could not be more striking: Israel is not a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, nor the Chemical Weapons Convention. In addition to using white phosphorus– a chemical weapon– on Palestinians, Israel possesses a nuclear arsenal that is undeclared, unmonitored and not subject to any sanctions regime.
In the 1960s Israel proceeded to dismantle Egypt's ballistic missiles program by assassinating the scientists working on it and now similarly kills Iranian scientists and blows up Iran's nuclear facilities with impunity. Israel regularly violates Lebanese airspace and bombs Syria almost weekly. There isn't a country in the Levant that Israel hasn't bombed, annexed or invaded; behavior much more deserving of the title “malign activities in the region”, yet we're supposed to be afraid of Iran and okay with Israel having nuclear weapons?
Killing scientists, attacking uranium enrichment plants with cyber-weapons and explosives, these are acts of war. If any country did that to Israel, they would be bombed immediately in response. Yet somehow it's acceptable for Israel to behave this way towards others without reproach?